Dashboard QD-01 · Monthly

Global Macro Monitor

Twelve series covering world output, prices, policy rates and trade. The two forces in the data right now pull in opposite directions: an energy disruption raising headline inflation, and a technology investment cycle supporting measured activity in economies that sit inside the hardware supply chain.

Vintage 1 August 2026Coverage 12 seriesBasis Published sources, all attributed

3.0%

World output growth projected for 2026

Down 0.1pp since April

4.7%

World headline inflation projected for 2026

Third upward revision running

$88

Brent crude, 31 July 2026, dollars per barrel

Peak of $118 on 31 March

1.9%

Merchandise trade volume growth projected for 2026

From 4.6% in 2025

Reading this monitor. Solid lines are outturns. Dashed segments are projections from the named forecaster, not from Quantia. Where a series mixes frequencies, the subtitle says so. Nothing here is seasonally adjusted by us.

Exhibit 1World real GDP growthAnnual percent change. 2026 and 2027 are IMF projections from the July 2026 update.

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026. Pre-2024 outturns from successive WEO vintages; 2024 and 2025 are the 3.5 percent average cited in the July 2026 update.

Exhibit 2Growth forecasts for 2026, selected economiesReal GDP, percent change on 2025. Ordered by rate.

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026 and IMF WEO Update text, July 2026 (PDF). Korea was revised up on artificial intelligence related exports; the euro area was revised down from 1.1 percent in April.

Exhibit 3Successive vintages of the 2026 global inflation forecastIMF projection for world headline consumer price inflation in 2026, as published in three separate rounds.

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026, with earlier vintages as summarised in reporting on the July update. Three revisions in the same direction is the point of the chart.

Exhibit 4Brent crude through the 2026 disruptionUS dollars per barrel. Mixed frequency: selected daily quotations to 31 March, monthly averages for May and June, daily thereafter.

Sources: EIA, Today in Energy, Q1 2026 petroleum review; EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2026; Trading Economics, Brent crude, 31 July 2026. The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed from 28 February and reopened following the 18 June memorandum of understanding.

Exhibit 5World trade volume growth, goods and servicesPercent change on previous year. 2026 and 2027 are WTO projections on a baseline that excludes further energy price shocks.

Source: WTO, Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, March 2026. Merchandise volumes are the average of exports and imports. The WTO notes 2025 data are as of 10 March and subject to revision.

Policy

Policy settings, latest decisions
Central bank	Rate	Last move	Latest decision	Source link
Federal Reserve	3.50 to 3.75%	Hold, fifth consecutive	29 July 2026, held on a 9 to 3 vote, with three regional presidents preferring a quarter point rise	federalreserve.gov
European Central Bank	2.25%	Raise, 11 June 2026	23 July 2026, held. The June rise followed inflation pressure from the Middle East conflict	commonslibrary.parliament.uk

Deposit facility rate for the ECB, target range for the federal funds rate. Next scheduled decisions: ECB 10 September, Federal Reserve 16 September 2026. Sources: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, 29 July 2026; House of Commons Library, interest rate tracker.

Conditions for revision. The July WEO assumes a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-July. If transit normalises and Brent settles into the 70s, the 2027 inflation path of 3.9 percent is reachable. If the risk premium persists above 90 dollars into the fourth quarter, the 2027 figure is too low and the euro area growth number is too high.